The bond market can offer a useful read on growth expectations, inflation, credit risk, and financial conditions—without requiring you to become a fixed-income specialist.
Here are five places to start.
1. The Treasury Yield Curve
Start with U.S. Treasury yields across maturities. The curve can help frame expectations around growth, inflation, and monetary policy.
Resource: U.S. Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
2. The 2-Year vs. 10-Year Spread
One of the most widely followed relationships in fixed income. Comparing short- and longer-term Treasury yields provides a quick view into how markets are pricing the economic outlook.
Resource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — 10-Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury
3. High-Yield Credit Spreads
Watch what lower-rated companies have to pay above comparable Treasuries. Widening spreads can signal increasing concern about corporate credit risk.
Resource: FRED — ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread
4. Investment-Grade Credit
Investment-grade spreads can provide another view of corporate financing conditions and investor risk appetite.
Resource: FRED — ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread
5. Actual Bond Trading Activity
For a look beyond indexes and yields, FINRA’s TRACE data provides information on transactions in corporate and other fixed-income securities.
Resource: FINRA Fixed Income Data
You don’t need to trade bonds to listen to what the bond market is saying. Rates, spreads, and trading activity can provide useful context for decisions across equities, private markets, and the broader economy.
This is not financial advice. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified professional when appropriate.
Leave a comment